Bitcoin price today: unchanged at $69k amid Fed fears, spot Ether ETF focus

Bitcoin price moved marginally on Thursday as a recent rally in cryptocurrencies, on hype over a potential spot Ether exchange-traded fund, was largely undermined by renewed fears of high U.S. interest rates.

U.S. rate jitters sparked strong overnight gains in the dollar, which pressured crypto prices across the board.

Bitcoin slipped 0.35% in the past 24 hours to $69,390 by 09:05 ET (13:05 GMT). The world’s biggest cryptocurrency settled back into a trading range seen for most of the past two months, after a brief breakout earlier this week.

World no.2 token Ether hovered around two-month highs hit earlier this week, retaining a bulk of gains made on hype over the potential approval of a spot Ether ETF for U.S. markets. The Securities and Exchange Commission is set to make a decision on the matter as soon as Thursday or Friday.

Spot Ether ETF dominates market focus 

Ether rose around 5.5% over the past 24 hours to $3,878.84. The token marked a strong rally this week after reports on Monday said the SEC had asked certain exchanges to fine-tune their filings for spot Ether ETFs.

While the move did mark some progress towards a spot ETF approval, it did not guarantee their approval. 

The SEC is now set to decide on applications for a spot Ether ETF from VanEck, ARK Investment Management and seven other issuers later on Thursday or Friday. 

According to QCP Capital, the approval of spot ether ETFs in the U.S. could potentially drive a rally of up to 60% in the second-largest cryptocurrency in the coming months.

The forecast mirrors the market reaction seen after spot bitcoin ETFs were approved in January, said the Singapore-based firm in a Thursday broadcast on Telegram. Bitcoin surged from $42,000 to over $73,000 within two weeks of the ETFs beginning to trade on January 11, as per CoinGecko data.

"With Friday implied volatility above 100%, the market is expecting fireworks," QCP said.

"VanEck’s ETF has been listed by the DTCC. We think approval is now highly likely with trading expected as early as next week,” it added.

Implied volatility measures the market's expectation of future price fluctuations for a financial instrument.

Crypto price today: rate jitters intensify, dent prices 

Broader cryptocurrency markets unwound a bulk of gains made earlier this week, as fears of high for longer U.S. interest rates ramped up following some hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.

The minutes of the Fed’s late-April meeting showed increasing concerns among policymakers over sticky inflation, with some members even signaling they were prepared to hike rates to quell inflation.

A slew of Fed officials also warned this week that the bank had little confidence that inflation was easing steadily towards its 2% annual target. 

While the chances of another rate hike are dim, any stickiness in inflation is likely to delay the Fed’s plans to begin trimming rates. High for long rates bode poorly for crypto markets, given that the sector usually thrives in low-rate, high-liquidity markets. 

Altcoin prices mostly fell on Thursday. SOL shed 2.5%, while XRP lost 1%. Among meme tokens, SHIB fell 0.5%, while DOGE climbed 0.3%.

Can Crypto Markets March Higher When $1.1B Bitcoin Options Expire Today?

Friday is crypto options expiry day and more than a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin contracts are set to expire. 

Aside from a minor mid-week dip, crypto markets have been relatively inactive in the past several days and continue to trade sideways.

However, around 18,280 Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire on May 10, which may inject some volatility.

The notional value for this week’s batch of expiring BTC contracts is around $1.15 billion, according to Deribit. The batch is slightly smaller than last week’s expiry event.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

The put/call ratio for this week’s BTC options is 0.64, which means that more calls, or long contracts, are expiring than puts or shorts.

The longs are also dominating in open interest (OI) with almost $700 million at the $70,000 and $100,000 strike prices. Open interest refers to the number or value of contracts that have yet to be settled.

OI for put contracts is also starting to creep up with around $360 million at the $50,000 strike price, according to Deribit.

Overall, the open interest for Bitcoin call options is more than double the OI for put options, indicating bullish trader sentiment.

Call options give the right to purchase the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date.

Moreover, trading firms like QCP Capital and Paradigm have observed revived demand for upside call options, including buyers closing existing positions to roll into higher strike calls expiring in July and September.

In addition to today’s batch of Bitcoin options, 276,000 Ethereum contracts are also set to expire.

These have a notional value of around $840 million and a put/call ratio of 0.74. There is a lot of OI, around $636 million, at the $3,600 strike price, indicating that Ethereum derivatives traders are also bullish.

Crypto Market Outlook

Crypto markets have gained 2.1% on the day to reach $2.45 trillion in total capitalization. However, they have consolidated around this level since mid-April with very little movement in either direction.

Bitcoin dipped below $61,000 on May 9 but has recovered to tap $63,000 during the Friday morning Asian trading session. The asset has been down trending since its all-time high in mid-March and has lost 15% since then.

Ethereum prices hit an intraday low of $2,953 but have since recovered to reach $3,032 at the time of writing.

The altcoins are mostly in the green at the moment, with larger gains for Solana (SOL) and Toncoin (TON).

Bitcoin's Modest Rally Cut Short, Price Tumbles Back Below $61K

 Stagflationary U.S. economic data and hawkish remarks from a Fed speaker appeared to sour the bullish mood.

The price of bitcoin (BTC) fell sharply in the U.S. morning hours Friday, reversing a move that had seen the world's largest crypto climb as high as $63,500.

As good of an excuse as any for catalysts were disappointing U.S. economic data and hawkish remarks from Dallas Fed President Lori Logan. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for May tumbled to 67.4 from 77.2 previously. That missed economist forecasts for 76.0 by a mile. Perhaps more disturbingly, one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.5% from 3.2% previously and against forecasts for 3.2%. It was only one week ago when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell scoffed at stagflation concerns, saying he was seeing neither the "stag" nor the "flation."

As for the Dallas Fed chief, Logan this morning said there were "uncertainties" about whether current Fed policy is sufficiently restrictive and noted "important upside risks to inflation."

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The news combined to send the U.S. dollar and bond yields modestly higher, but had little effect on stocks. Bitcoin, on the other hand, retreated quickly, tumbling at one point more than 4% from the day's high to $60,700. At press time, the price had bounced a hair to $61,000, lower by 0.6% over the past 24 hours. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is up 0.15% over the same period.